Decisions Under Uncertainty
Pascal's Wager argues that when facing uncertain outcomes with potentially catastrophic consequences, rational decision-making depends on expected value.
Expected Value = Probability × Outcome
You'll evaluate 5 real-world scenarios where you must decide whether to take action or not, based on the probability and severity of outcomes.
Pascal's Wager teaches us that when potential losses are catastrophic, even low probabilities can justify taking action. The key insight: it's not just about likelihood—it's about the magnitude of consequences.
In each scenario, the expected value calculation weighs both the probability and the severity of outcomes to determine the rational choice.